Lemme give high props to my brithday boys, and break it down, Houx Style, the Oscars. Every category - like an SAT test - can be broken down usually to two choices. Here's how I see it playing out.
Crash vs. Brokeback Mountain - EDGE: Brokeback Mountain
Ang Lee vs.... Paul Haggis I guess - EDGE Ang 'Motherfucking' Lee
Phillip Seymour Hoffman vs. Heath Ledger - EDGE: Me.
Reese Witherspoon vs. Felicity Huffman - EDGE: Witherspoon. (note: I have a friend who thinks the Weinsteins can pull it off for Huffman. My guess is that Witherspoon is just more cinematic a choice, and Transamerica seems so forgetable)
Best Supporting actor:
Paul Giamatti vs. George Clooney vs. Jake Gyllenhal- EDGE: George Clooney (note: Peeps want it to be Giamatti, but George Clooney got four nominations this year, and this seems the best category he could win. Also, I feel like if the cards get played right there could be some extra BM love, still, I think it's Clooney's)
Best Supporting Actress:
Michelle Williams vs. Rachel Weisz - EDGE: Weisz [by a cunt hair] (seriously, BM's got the top two locked, but I think it's possible an actor win will come down the pike)
Best Original Screenplay:
Good Night and Good Luck vs. Crash - EDGE: Crash (this is another close one, it could be Clooney's, but Crash needs it's good dog reward. Hrm.)
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Brokeback Mountain vs. Brokeback Mountain - NO EDGE.... LOCK LOCK LOCK LOCK